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The recent rally to the $69K has not experienced an intensive profit realization like 2021 Q1. The image below presents the weekly profit/loss intensity as a percentage of the realized cap.
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To shed some light, we can compare the intensity of profit realization at the new ATH in late November ($69K top) and the previous ATH in April ($64K). The main concern was if this ATH was the cycle top. The market saw a 23% dip after recording the new ATH of $69K in late November. Profit/Loss Realization: Was $69K the Cycle’s Top? Since then, the price action has been driven up by the supply shock.
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The current declining trend started mid-July when the market bounced back from ~30K support level. Looking at the rate of change in All Exchange Reserves, it’s possible to estimate the supply & demand strength in the market.Īs illustrated, the long-term trend confirms a continuous reserve depletion across all exchanges. But, first, the bulls will have to break this line, and on the other hand, hold the next critical support level of $56K and the past week’s low at $53K. Bearish selling pressure is indicated by upper shadows towards $60K on this timeframe. A reversal move is confirmed when the price crosses its short-term downtrend line and forms a higher high.Īs a result of the formation of a higher high at 60,000$, a continuation of the uptrend looks probable. The price has been struggling with the downtrend line (blue line) and crossed it a few hours ago, but this breakout hasn’t yet been confirmed (turned into a fakeout). Assuming Bitcoin completes its last uptrend wave in the same manner as the past and moves towards the top of the channel, BTC prices may reach 90K.Īs the next step, it’s important to look at lower timeframes to examine the mid-term trend’s reliance. These all point to a strong uptrend move. On the other hand, the red candles in wave B are weaker than wave A and the depth of the correction of wave B was less than wave A. Wave A moved with a gentler slope than wave B and reached the top of the channel, while wave B moved with a steeper slope in a shorter time. Considering the mentioned structure, the current bullish rally is likely to continue because of the difference between waves A and B. With the recent upside move (~70% from the bottom of the channel), the market has experienced a 20-day correction. This analysis was compiled by analysts GrizzlyBTClover and CryptoVizArt to CryptoPotato.īitcoin is moving up inside the uptrend channel on the daily timeframe, and the formation of higher highs and higher lows confirms its bullish bias. Bitcoin’s price action continues to be shaky in the short term, but that might largely be attributed to headwinds caused by the newfound COVID variant.ĭespite the recent bearishness, the on-chain metrics and the mid-to-long-term technicals continue to favor extended bull market and show no real signs of worry.